I recently attended CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook for 2010 and was pleasantly “confirmed” (what’s the opposite of surprised?) with what they had to say about the Vancouver real estate forecast, and Coquitlam in particular.
In 2010, British Columbia expects to see a net migration of about 40,000 new residents (including international and interprovincial), which will equal about 16-18,000 households. Of this 18,000, 65% will be homebuyers. New Canadians make up one of the largest percentages of new homebuyers today, and many choose to settle in the Lower Mainland. 39% of Coquitlam’s population is foreign-born, which means demand for housing in this area will continue to be steady.
The market is busy – listings are decreasing at a much steeper rate than sales are increasing, and we have shot right past a balanced market into a full blown seller’s market. This unprecedented price correction cycle is not over yet – the 2010 forecast for the benchmark house price in Greater Vancouver is expected to increase another 4% to $605,000. The Tri Cities are currently sitting at about 6% below the 2007 peak value for detached homes, and 8% below peak for condo properties. Greater Vancouver as a whole is at 1% below peak for detached homes, and 3% below peak for condo properties.
New housing starts are pulling back for 2010. They are hovering around the mid-point of the past construction boom peak of 2006/07. Multi-family and rental property construction will lead the way for new construction in 2010.
What does all this mean for Coquitlam and Burke Mountain?
-With less new construction supply coming on the market, there will not be an over-supply of homes immediately available on Burke Mountain, thus allowing the absorption of new homes to happen at a healthy pace, maintaining (increasing?) the value of current new construction homes on the Mountain.
-With a high percentage of International migrants choosing to settle in Coquitlam, demand will remain strong in the area.
-Some markets have already seen a rebound to above-peak prices. With Coquitlam still sitting below the peak and current mortgage interest rates remaining low into 2011, affordability in the Tri-Cities remains high.
If you would like to learn more about the current real estate market or if you have any questions about the above information, give me a call – I’d love to chat!